I was nervous last year because the hamate could linger but he put those worries to bed. That was about average, as the mean homer per barrel rate for lefties was 73.6%.Given that each of these guys has to travel and only plays half his games at home, I don’t want to spend a ton of time on parks. Last year’s numbers prorate to 45 HR/91 R/114 RBI over a full season.
It gives him a thin margin for error both on the road and against righties and may help explain why his numbers were suspiciously lacking in 2018.
He’s a Statcast darling whose xwOBA (.386) was better than his wOBA (.368) for a 2nd straight season. If he continues to show a willingness to drop down bunts it will help with the shift and bump up his average. Playing devil's advocate here though: Olson has always stunk against lefties and hasn't shown improvement at all against them since he's debuted. He was asked to but refused to adjust. He hit .282 in 266 AB after the ASB last season. With directionality added in, Citi Field ranked fifth in the MLB with 81.5% of barrels becoming homers for righty bats.
Some would say his BABIP in 2018 was inflated, he looks like a low-mid 200's BABIP guy at this point. Another factor I also like is that he put 5 bunts in play in 2019, all of which went for hits. Ariel Cohen’s ATC has these two in a dead heat, both at .257. So let’s split the difference. This was well above the mean for homers per barrel for righties, which was 75.8%. Teixeria Bunted? There's certainly some average risk but there is with any power hitter. Last year’s numbers prorate to 45 HR/91 R/114 RBI over a full season. BABIP against lefties .179 (2017) .314 (2018) .226 (2019)
He slugged .583 (.542 xSLG), had an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph, and posted a 15.8% barrel rate (which ranked inside the Top 3% of the MLB). Olson gets RBIs and batting average (from me). There's really no reason to assign any injury risk to him. To me, the numbers are encouraging for both hitters. So unless park factors have something wacky to say about it, for me it’s Olson in the power department.Oakland Coliseum has ranked 1.056, 0.756, and 0.854 over the last three years.
Frankly, as one of my main keepers, he better!
Olson, batting cleanup for what looks like a better team, gets the edge in RBIs.
Is there another gear to Olson's offense or are we just hoping for a full season of him? Maybe that’s aggressive on my part, but I don’t really think so.Now for the fun part.
Soft contact has fallen: 17.8%, 13.8%, 15.6%. Yes his ISO was very good in 2019 (similar to his breakout debut).
Entering age 26 season. His counting stats should be strong (and remember he drove in 91 runs in 127 games played last year). First of all let me say I like Olson and really hope he has a monster year. wRC+ against lefties 105 (2017) 99 (2018) 101 (2019) His 42.0% hard contact rate per Fangraphs is lower than Olson. Still, Alonso did crush 50+ in his first MLB season, so I think I’ll give him the edge here. Let’s state the obvious: Pete Alonso crushed 53 homers in 2019. There's really no reason to assign any injury risk to him. Last year his BABIP against lefties was pretty low, but he showed an all time high in power metrics against LHP (with an insanely high ISO of .255 against lefties.)
After Bellinger, Freeman, and Alonso are off the board, Olson is the best available in my eyes. He turns 26 around the time the season starts, so really just entering his prime. He’ll be surrounded by Khris Davis , Stephen Piscotty … He may be the 4th best 1B option, but that means you should probably avoid the middle round 1B this year. He hits in the middle of a very good offense (#8 in runs scored last year) and there could be improvement from Laureano and a bounce back year from Khris Davis. He’s not fleet of foot (26.5 ft/s or 41st percentile) so that won’t save him. Like Alonso. Good and bad plays.
Followers 1.
But still, the data suggests that Citi Field isn’t damning for Alonso’s home run ability in 2020.Olson is a lefty at Oakland Coliseum—long viewed as a pitcher’s haven. Doesn't get the margin of error that other hitters get for accumulating hits.
No reason to question his durability either - he recovered quicker than expected and with no ill effects from the much-feared hamate injury.
That is better than most right-handed hitters.
and about 10 of those in a year can bump your avg 15-20 points I think Olson is *safe* for 30 HR, but more likely 40+ if he stays healthy (he hit 36 in 127 games last year after suffering a hamate injury in March). His statcast says his LHP average should have been up (with an aggregate average of .280)
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